CAN BROWN DO IT? – AT 8:41 A.M. ET:   It's been tough for Scott Brown in his race for a Senate seat from New Hampshire.  His negative numbers are high, in part because he's seen by some as a carpetbagger from neighboring Massachusetts, where he'd been defeated for re-election to the Senate by Elizabeth Warren.   His opponent, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, is relatively popular.  But Brown is close.  From the Boston Herald: 

U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen clings to a tenuous 3-point lead over GOP challenger Scott Brown but falls short of the magic 50 percent mark, despite an attack ad bombardment that has left Brown's public image reeling, an exclusive new Suffolk University-Boston Herald poll reveals.

With just a little more than two weeks before Election Day, the Democratic incumbent leads Brown by a 49-46 percent margin among 500 likely New Hampshire voters in a race that could tilt the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.

The margin is hardly comforting to Democrats since it shows Shaheen's support has remained stagnant over the last few months. In the last Suffolk-Herald poll in June, Shaheen held the exact same level of support - 49 percent - among likely voters.

Brown's support has increased by 7 points since June. But Brown's favorability has taken a major hit in the rough election campaign, with 48 percent of likely voters viewing him negatively. He needs a late surge to catch up, because most voters have already made up their minds, according to David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center.

COMMENT:  Again, turnout is the key...and a little luck.  This may turn out to be a heartbreaker. 

October 21, 2014